Buying Advice
What Should a Car Lease Cost?
A lease payment is mostly the depreciation you rent over the term, plus the lender's rent charge. The depreciation floor is what that first part costs: the car's price minus what it's worth at lease end, divided by the months. A quote below the floor is subsidized by the manufacturer; a quote well above it is carrying a marked-up money factor, fees, or add-ons.
A lease payment is mostly the depreciation you're renting, and depreciation is something we can measure. Here is that floor computed for every model we track, what sits on top of it, and how to tell a subsidized lease from a marked-up one.
Analysis by the MotiveGrid Engineering Team · Updated July 24, 2026
Key numbers
- Across 81 models, the depreciation floor of a 36-month lease ranges from $133 a month on the 2026 Ford Maverick to $1,389 a month on the 2026 Lucid Gravity — before any interest, tax, or fees.
- The median model's floor is $403 a month, so a typical advertised lease payment carries roughly that much pure depreciation inside it.
- The 2026 Ford Maverick holds 83% of its value after three years; the 2026 Lucid Gravity holds 37%. That gap, not the sticker price, is what makes one cheap to lease and the other expensive.
Where a lease payment actually comes from
A lease charges you for the value the car loses while you have it, plus interest on the money the lender has tied up in it. The first part is depreciation, and it is the floor beneath any lease payment: the negotiated price minus what the car is worth at lease end, divided by the number of months.
That is why leasing rewards cars that hold their value in a way buying does not make so immediate. When you buy, strong resale value pays you back years later, at trade-in. When you lease, you pay the depreciation directly, every month, from the first payment. Two cars with identical stickers can differ by hundreds of dollars a month for no reason other than how well the market expects them to hold up.
The numbers below use each model's real 3-year resale data and its standard trim's sticker price. They are a floor, not a quote: they contain no interest, no tax, no fees, and no dealer add-ons.
What we can compute, and what we can't
We publish the depreciation floor because we can measure it from real resale data. We do not publish predicted lease payments, because the two numbers that finish the calculation — the lender's residual and its money factor — are set privately by each manufacturer's finance arm and are not something we can source honestly.
That distinction matters more than it sounds. A lender's residual is a business lever, not a forecast: it is routinely set above what a car will really be worth in order to subsidize a lease and make the advertised payment look better. So a residual is not a prediction of value, and market resale data is not a residual. Using one as the other would produce a confident number that is wrong in a direction we could not measure. The floor avoids that entirely — it tells you what the car genuinely loses, and leaves the lender's terms as the thing you go and ask for.
Cheapest models to lease, by depreciation
These hold their value best, so there is least depreciation to rent. A 36-month lease on any of them starts from a low floor — though the manufacturer's money factor still decides what you are actually quoted.
| Vehicle | Sticker price | Value kept after 3 years | Depreciation floor |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Ford Maverick | $28,145 | 83% | $133/mo |
| 2026 Honda Civic | $24,695 | 81% | $134/mo |
| 2026 Toyota Corolla | $23,125 | 75% | $159/mo |
| 2026 Hyundai Elantra | $22,625 | 74% | $163/mo |
| 2026 Toyota RAV4 | $31,900 | 81% | $167/mo |
| 2026 Honda HR-V | $26,500 | 77% | $171/mo |
| 2026 Toyota Tacoma | $32,445 | 81% | $176/mo |
| 2026 Subaru Crosstrek | $26,995 | 76% | $178/mo |
| 2026 Subaru Forester | $29,995 | 76% | $197/mo |
| 2026 Honda CR-V | $30,920 | 77% | $201/mo |
Most expensive models to lease, by depreciation
These lose the most value in the first three years, so a lease has more to charge you for. Several are priced similarly to cars in the table above — the difference is resale, not sticker.
| Vehicle | Sticker price | Value kept after 3 years | Depreciation floor |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Lucid Gravity | $79,900 | 37% | $1,389/mo |
| 2026 BMW i5 | $84,100 | 54% | $1,072/mo |
| 2026 Rivian R1S | $76,990 | 52% | $1,031/mo |
| 2026 Mercedes-Benz GLS | $90,250 | 61% | $985/mo |
| 2026 Rivian R1T | $72,990 | 52% | $977/mo |
| 2026 BMW X5 | $68,300 | 55% | $861/mo |
| 2027 BMW 5 Series | $60,500 | 54% | $781/mo |
| 2026 Honda Prologue | $47,400 | 42% | $758/mo |
| 2026 Mercedes-Benz E-Class | $63,900 | 57% | $754/mo |
| 2026 Ford Expedition | $58,000 | 54% | $744/mo |
How to use the floor on a real quote
Find your car's floor, then subtract it from the payment you were quoted. What remains is the rent charge, the tax, the fees, and anything rolled into the payment. Some gap is normal. A large one is a prompt to ask questions, not proof of anything.
- Below the floor? The manufacturer is subsidizing this lease, through an inflated residual or a promotional money factor. That is usually the best deal available on that car, and it is why lease specials cluster on specific models and months.
- A little above it? Normal. You are paying depreciation plus a modest rent charge, which is what a lease is.
- Well above it? Ask three questions in writing: what is the money factor, what is the residual, and what exactly is capitalized into the payment. The money factor is the term most often missing from a worksheet — multiply it by 2,400 to read it as an interest rate.
If you already have a quote in hand, the Car Deal Checker does this comparison for you against the exact car on your paperwork, alongside the fee teardown.
Frequently asked questions
- What should a car lease cost?
- Start with the depreciation you're renting: the car's negotiated price minus what it will be worth at lease end, divided by the number of months. That is the floor beneath any lease payment — the part you cannot negotiate away, because it is what the car actually loses in value while you have it. On top of that sits the lender's rent charge (the money factor), tax, and fees. A quote below the depreciation floor means the manufacturer is subsidizing the lease; a quote far above it means the money factor, the fees, or the add-ons deserve a closer look.
- Why do two cars with the same price have very different lease payments?
- Because they lose value at different rates, and a lease charges you for exactly that loss. A model that holds 81% of its value after three years has only lost 19% for you to pay for. One that holds 42% has lost more than half. On two $32,000 cars, that difference alone is roughly $170 a month versus $520 a month before any interest is added. This is why strong resale value matters more when leasing than when buying — on a lease you pay the depreciation directly and immediately.
- Is a lease payment below the depreciation floor a scam?
- No — it usually means a subsidized lease, and it is often the best deal on the lot. Manufacturers support leases by inflating the residual value above what the car will really be worth, or by offering a promotional money factor, because it moves metal and returns a predictable used car to the dealer network. When the advertised payment lands below what depreciation alone costs, the manufacturer is absorbing the difference. That is worth recognizing rather than distrusting.
- How do I tell if my lease payment is too high?
- Work out the depreciation floor for your car and term, then compare. Everything above the floor is the rent charge, taxes, fees, and anything rolled into the payment. Some gap is normal and expected. A large gap is a prompt to ask three specific questions: what is the money factor, what is the residual, and what exactly is capitalized into the payment. Ask for all three in writing — the money factor is the term most often left off a lease worksheet.
- Does negotiating the price still matter on a lease?
- Yes, and it is the single biggest lever you have. The depreciation you pay is measured from the capitalized cost, which is the negotiated price of the car — not the sticker. Every dollar you take off the price comes off the amount you are renting, spread across the term. The residual and the money factor are set by the lender and are not negotiable, so the price is where the negotiation actually lives.